Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.
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Calculated Risks | Book by Gerd Gigerenzer | Official Publisher Page | Simon & Schuster
There are all sorts of things that can generate a false positive result. One can still use probability and apply Bayes law to have the same answer more ‘accurate’ answer, some will insist.
The author speaks in a gentle and friendly voice, guiding readers into the land of statistics. People have actually gone to prison and been put to death over this kind of thing.
Well thanks for joining us, SciAm article authors, better late than never! This is based on the show Let’s Make a Deal.
Gigerenzer shows through diagrams, charts and tables, and something called natural frequencies just how we can be misled by the way probabilities are presented. The point rieks take home is that there is so much uncertainty in numbers, especially in matters that can be life altering, that I definitely recommend this book as required reading for anyone who faces the risks discussed in this book.
The book closes with tongue-in-cheek examples of how to cheat gwrd by exploiting their probabilistic innumeracy, and includes several fun problems.
Alexa Actionable Analytics for the Web. I had hoped to add this to the toolbox to accompany Innumeracy which Gigerenzer referencesbut there are other, better, books out there on the subject.
So, what doctors should say is that a positive test really does not mean anything. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening.
This is a very clearly written book. Now the answer is obvious. However, as the blood tests are not foolproof and rely on coagulation of antibodies, and require human beings to add the right chemicals and handle the samples correctly without mixing them up etc, false positives do occur. When you hear quotes from prosecutors such as ‘there is a one-in-a-million chance that someone else besides this suspect committed the crime,’ they’re getting their statements badly wrong.
He puts forward some very compelling information about various medical areas mammograms, AIDS testing, prostate exams – and how there isn’t as much certainty in these tests as we are lead to believe. Jun 07, Dick Hamilton rated it really liked it. His language was precise and unambiguous, without being filled with unnecessary jargon.
He follows this introduction with a geed on breast cancer screening. To ask other readers questions about Calculated Risksplease sign up. Amazon Giveaway allows you to run promotional giveaways in order to create buzz, reward your audience, and attract new followers and customers.
I’d read about probabilistic and natural frequencies before, but until now, I’d never realised what those claims made about the reliability of DNA fingerprinting matches really implied, and how ambiguous the numbers About everyday situations which require people to calculaged decisions based on statistics, and the way those statistics are badly misunderstood and miscommunicated.
The same is true for advocacy groups.? Published March 19th by Simon Schuster first published Oct 06, Victoria rated it really liked it. Preview — Calculated Risks by Gerd Gigerenzer. If out of every women 77 have breast cancer, and that 7 gigetenzer these 77 who test positive actually have the disease, then given that someone tests positive for cancer what is the true probability that this person actually has cancer?
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Amazon Inspire Digital Educational Resources. Certainly not the first book addressing the problem of statistical innumeracy among the public, but I think this book’s message has been somewhat drown out by less serious and more recent releases cslculated authors who’ve had the fortune of becoming more popular.
But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as Would you like giberenzer tell us about a lower price?
Trivia About Calculated Risks For example, when we are presented with the risks of, let’s say, treatment with a statin drug, there are three ways to present the benefits – absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and something called number needed to treat NNT. Frank Furedi on the global warming apocalypse. Yes, important stuff and this book exhaustively and minutely explores these errors in risk calculation and communication.
One of those books that makes you wish you would have paid more attention at school math classes. However, I felt first few chapters already delivered riskd of the message and the rest of the book was repeating the berd story again and again; it could’ve been written more concisely with better organization, but maybe the author wanted to dumb down as much as possible as his main purpose of writing this book is to educate the general public.
But, what does this really mean? But this book, this book does a magic. For instance, DNA testing does not prove much. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false gegd. Anche gli esempi sono scelti in maniera da interessare: